Global Warming – In expectations of Arguments at Dragon Con

UAH_LT_1979_thru_June_2015_v6I have many good friends who are ACGW (Anthropogenic Catastrophic Global Warming) believers. I’m not. I was easily persuaded back in the 1990’s that it was real, then I met Lee and was introduced to Roy Spencer and John Christie. They produce this product above. Technically done by the University of Alabama, Huntsville. It is a NASA product. The National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) is a collaboration center for NASA and UAH, this is their work.

So right off, when they say “This is the warmest year ever!” They are lying in two ways. 1) We know 1998 was warmer, 2) The error bars are +/- 0.2 degrees, so heck, almost any year could be the warmest.

GISS

The Goddard product is a little more mushy, but it uses land-based measurements and a huge averaging program that seems designed to cut out cooling areas and replace them with “average warm” areas. But Frankly, even with their thumb on the scales, this is it. This is the scary warming.

Do Humans influence global warming? Probably not, or only at the margins. (A 0.1 degree increase may have occurred due to human influence- the addition of CO2 to the atmosphere, however, the margin of error is still in the +/- 0.2 degrees C region, so we can’t really know.)

Is it a Catastrophe? Nope. Mild effects, entirely beneficial.

Are temperatures going up, up, up? Satellite records say no, some land records say yes, but slowly. We are still below the Medieval Warm Period’s warming. The Roman warming was higher than the Medieval and the Minoan was twice the medieval. The Earth appears to warm and cool by some natural cycle. We would like to attribute it to the sun, but it appears to be more complicated than that.

The problem comes out to: You are going to spend trillions of dollars to fix something that doesn’t need fixing. Some scientists prefer the fixes, because they believe it is good to move to solar and wind power. This ignores the environment destruction that this market imbalance is causing. People die without power. Cheap electricity creates food, clean water, and housing around the world. A Trillion dollars have been wasted on this in the US alone, do you think we got our money’s worth?

 

 

Mars Radiation on the Space Track

Capture

So, I have to thank Rain (boss of the Space Track.) She knows I’ll join in on anybody’s panel and make it more fun. BUT, I really want to talk about radiation. The Martian is “hot” right now, so Mars is a hot topic. (Obviously, Mars is only hot metaphorically or figuratively, because literally it is colder than ice.)

Is radiation important for a Martian Colony? Absolutely. Oddly enough, at NASA we were asked this question many years ago. I wrote the Design Specifications for Natural Environment (pronounced Disney) for some of these missions. I’d love to go over this in great detail…but we’ll wait till Sunday morning. See ya at Dragon Con.

My Dragon Con Panel made me do math

So, if you want to hear some Science at Dragon Con, come to the science track. Saturday, 2:30 pm, we’ll discuss the science behind Military SciFi battles.

I’ve had a lot of ideas on these things for years, practically an obsession of mine. Bullets are too slow, Lasers are too low power, and missiles aren’t much better than bullets. Dr. Davis had an answer involving Anti Matter.

So, if you could constrain 1e15 anti-protons in a laser, this is called neutral beam propagation, fire them at an opponent at a good chunk of light speed, and it would hit like a stick of dynamite. Ok, so right now, 1e9 protons are possible, but you couldn’t get a sack of anti-protons that big. Engineering says it is possible though.

Obviously, when we can constrain a gram of antimatter in a laser, it’ll hit like a photon torpedo.  If someone is shooting those at me, I’ll build a magnetic shield and ionize the incoming beam with counter laser, or perhaps a series of polarized magnetic fields.

Feel free to check my math, harass me, or whatever. That’s what this is all about.

enterprise

No Updates – An update

Scheduling Conflicts,
Scheduling Conflicts

Sorry folks, I’m heading into Dragon Con in a few weeks and I haven’t updated this page in a year. I have had an unusual job issue, which was fixed by getting a new job. Unfortunately, this meant moving to Washington D.C. The current job doesn’t really like excessive publicity, so I haven’t worked the blog since coming onboard. I’ll consider ways to make it better in the future. (Also, I freaking hate this blog software. I’m changing that first.) So, I’m sorry for the terrible update. I’ll put more out there before Dragon Con, but … my time is limited.

What people think happens at my Day Job

First Nuclear Weapon Test Device
First Nuclear Weapon Test Device

What people think happens at Dragon Con

rare-64

OH, if anyone wants to borrow any pictures, I rarely post my own. ALMOST EVERYTHING ON THIS BLOG IS STOLEN! I shamelessly rip off Wikipedia and any public pictures. (If you see a picture that you own and want me to remove it, I will.) The only thing that’s mine is words…and the pictures of my kids.

 

Gleissberg Solar Minimum – Global Warming (cooling)

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/11/a-gleissberg-solar-minimum/#more-114355

 

I was looking at Watts Up With That and saw the article. Let me clarify something – We know very little about the sun. Also, we know very little about how the sun affects the Earth.

Yes, I’m aware of sunlight, magnetic fields, etc. I’m an expert, so unless you’ve got some years in the field, don’t interrupt.

The general opinion of a few years ago was that 99.99% of the solar effects on the Earth was from sunlight. Then they allowed that maybe 1% was particles, but since there was little direct correlation between 12-year solar cycles and temperature change, it probaly wasn’t important.

Ok, so now they are coming to recognize what most people “in the field” know. The sun is complicated. Correlation between sun spots and solar activity isn’t 1 = 1. Sure, low numbers of sun spots might indicate low solar storms, but a high density and high velocity solar wind might actually mean the Earth got MORE heating during a minimum. The sun spots are only indicative of 1 type of solar weather.

So pop on over to solarham.com and get a deeper view of the weather on the sun.

1) how spotty is the surface?

    not very. a few spots. The magnetogram might give a better answer, but really it is hard to tell the difference between big magnetic events and small ones. Comparing to the sunspot chart gives the same answer.

 2) How much pressure is in the solar wind?

 The solar wind runs around 2 – 5 nPa at velocities around 400 – 1000 km/s. Since you square velocity for total energy, velocity can be pretty important. Currently velocity is under 400 and density is under 1. Ok, so the wind is pretty weak right now.

3) magnetic field is usually North or South. I’ll get it backwards again, but the more North it is, the more it sticks to our magnetic field. If the wind is strong and sticky, it’ll have a bigger effect on the Earth.

4) time history is hard to judge, but if you look at the Earth’s Kp, you kind of have a time integral of what has happened the last few days. High Kp, it has been rough winds. Kp less than 4… quiet.

So, we’ve had long periods of very quiet sun, leading to a minimum that is very weak by any modern measurement. Is this an historic minimum. Heck if I know. Hard to judge what no one has measured before. But yeah, I see some resemblance to the Gleissberg cycle here. (among others.) We really won’t know till we have data, the rest is just fortune telling with expensive crystal balls.

 

Asteroids – Empirical Evidence

Embedded image permalink

Oddly enough, I heard that Asteroids was one of the most popular video games ever. Well, This is a real asteroid. The Rosetta mission is creeping up on it. What can you say? It sure doesn’t look like a planet.

Deeply WTF, ya know? I mean, you can predict “sphere” you can predict a lumpy potato… but this is … um kind of spiral lines like a pull fracture. Squarish craters… I’m baffled.

Remember last week when the sun was perfectly blank? I may have forgotten to post about it, but you all are keeping up with Solarham.com, right? Well, if you missed it, people were wondering if we were about to fall into some super minimum. nah

Now, the activity is mostly equitorial, which is appropriate behavior for the minimum, but there is more energy farther north and south than I’m comfortable with.

This false-color image looks at activity, not to add weird terms, but you can see how the wind is blowing.

Real activity seems to be mostly constrained under 30 degrees (and consistant with solar minimum) but there is a lot of activity all the way up to 60 degrees latitude.

“Thas jus not right.” – Redneck man. (He shows up sometimes) 

So, ya know, we predict and we get smacked sometimes. We keep trying. Pieces of asteroids have been recovered on earth, but the differences between comets, asteroids, and their meteors needs a lot of empirical data. Thanks to the European Space agency for Rosetta, and thanks to NASA for STEREO – which gives us these Solarham.com images.

Torn Knee Cartilidge

Yeah, a torn knee. Supposedly an “atheletic injury.” I suppose that 35 years of martial arts, 20 years of sword fighting, and 45 years of being a redneck hick probably earned me that a few times.

The first time I tore up my knee was biking up a mountain in a thunderstorm – actually just shy of a hurricane, they downgraded it to Tropical Depression that morning. Not that anyone told me. I was in Japan and back in ’93 and I don’t speak the local language, other than “Toire wa, doko des ka?” (Where’s the potty?)

 Mt Yari from Mt Washiba -C White

No, this isn’t the mountain I was biking. (but it is pretty) 

This looks more like the roads I was hitting, when cars weren’t trying to kill me. Not as pretty, but still pretty awesome.

I had a couple days off, my professor was in Tokyo for some reason, and I was biking near Tokai. The coast is mostly flat and a bit boring in the misty foggy rain. The roads near town were either unfriendly to bikes or tiny twisty things that with the constant big walls everywhere, aren’t much fun to ride.

There are a couple interesting climbs and some forest along the Mito line, which I went along for a while. Probably too long. I was getting blown around by the wind, so I headed up the mountain and hid out in some kind of general store for a while. I was soaked, my clothes were super-light weight (Japan was running 100 degrees and 100% humidity that week.) So I’m pretty drowned-rat in a light button down shirt and some khakis. The girl at the desk thought I was cute, so we attempted about two hours of cross-cultural, cross-lingual flirting. Not an epic fail… but pretty much a fail. By the time I got back to Tokai, my knees hurt – and kept hurting for a couple years. I used to run around in mocs, but had to move up to shoes with padded soles. The doctor said that I shouldn’t be biking for about 10 years recovering… well, I recovered. I’m still not back into biking, but I tried spinning yesterday (yes, with the bad knee. Just wanted to try it.) Frankly, unless I find a way to burn off some weight, my knees will have real problems. I’m about 15 lbs higher than I think is my standard weight, probably 25 lbs above ideal for my height/build. Somewhere around 175 lbs I’m a sexy beast. (heh, no, probably not, but a man’s got to have his illusions.)

Ron Rogers, he did preface this move saying, “This is gonna hurt.” It dislocated my shoulder.

Nobody warned me that this guy was big… getting busted by him was hard on the back, but I recovered.

This guy was just plain fun…

The Schola St. George was fun … (busted a finger)

Live steel is Da Bomb – though I had to buy titanium gauntlets to stop the constant string of busted fingers, knuckles, wrist…

But nothing beats chasing down people with swords…

Of course, there isn’t much to say. I keep busting myself up and I keep healing. I’ve broken more knuckles, ribs, toes, than I can count. Everything heals up fine…usually. Finally I’m hitting 46 and I don’t heal as fast as I used to.

I’d take off 10 years to let my knee heal…but that just doesn’t seem like a good idea anymore. I’d be 57 and … well.. I’d like to win a few more tourneys between now and then. Oh well, so I guess I get surgery.

If you pray, pray this goes well. If you don’t pray, I’d appreciate you learning, just for me. I’ll be under the knife around noon on August 5th. Should be back to my old self by Dragon Con 2014. Thanks!

Dragon Con 2014

Look, it absolutely stinks that two months before D*Con my website fails.

I am not forgetting Dragon Con, the Space Pirate Amazon Ninja Catgirl party, or anything else.

Updates will occur, this page will soldier on, etc, etc, etc.

(Dr. DNA is bringing tequilla, its gonna be an exciting day.)meow

Let me check my notes