Gleissberg Solar Minimum – Global Warming (cooling)

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/11/a-gleissberg-solar-minimum/#more-114355

 

I was looking at Watts Up With That and saw the article. Let me clarify something – We know very little about the sun. Also, we know very little about how the sun affects the Earth.

Yes, I’m aware of sunlight, magnetic fields, etc. I’m an expert, so unless you’ve got some years in the field, don’t interrupt.

The general opinion of a few years ago was that 99.99% of the solar effects on the Earth was from sunlight. Then they allowed that maybe 1% was particles, but since there was little direct correlation between 12-year solar cycles and temperature change, it probaly wasn’t important.

Ok, so now they are coming to recognize what most people “in the field” know. The sun is complicated. Correlation between sun spots and solar activity isn’t 1 = 1. Sure, low numbers of sun spots might indicate low solar storms, but a high density and high velocity solar wind might actually mean the Earth got MORE heating during a minimum. The sun spots are only indicative of 1 type of solar weather.

So pop on over to solarham.com and get a deeper view of the weather on the sun.

1) how spotty is the surface?

    not very. a few spots. The magnetogram might give a better answer, but really it is hard to tell the difference between big magnetic events and small ones. Comparing to the sunspot chart gives the same answer.

 2) How much pressure is in the solar wind?

 The solar wind runs around 2 – 5 nPa at velocities around 400 – 1000 km/s. Since you square velocity for total energy, velocity can be pretty important. Currently velocity is under 400 and density is under 1. Ok, so the wind is pretty weak right now.

3) magnetic field is usually North or South. I’ll get it backwards again, but the more North it is, the more it sticks to our magnetic field. If the wind is strong and sticky, it’ll have a bigger effect on the Earth.

4) time history is hard to judge, but if you look at the Earth’s Kp, you kind of have a time integral of what has happened the last few days. High Kp, it has been rough winds. Kp less than 4… quiet.

So, we’ve had long periods of very quiet sun, leading to a minimum that is very weak by any modern measurement. Is this an historic minimum. Heck if I know. Hard to judge what no one has measured before. But yeah, I see some resemblance to the Gleissberg cycle here. (among others.) We really won’t know till we have data, the rest is just fortune telling with expensive crystal balls.

 

Asteroids – Empirical Evidence

Embedded image permalink

Oddly enough, I heard that Asteroids was one of the most popular video games ever. Well, This is a real asteroid. The Rosetta mission is creeping up on it. What can you say? It sure doesn’t look like a planet.

Deeply WTF, ya know? I mean, you can predict “sphere” you can predict a lumpy potato… but this is … um kind of spiral lines like a pull fracture. Squarish craters… I’m baffled.

Remember last week when the sun was perfectly blank? I may have forgotten to post about it, but you all are keeping up with Solarham.com, right? Well, if you missed it, people were wondering if we were about to fall into some super minimum. nah

Now, the activity is mostly equitorial, which is appropriate behavior for the minimum, but there is more energy farther north and south than I’m comfortable with.

This false-color image looks at activity, not to add weird terms, but you can see how the wind is blowing.

Real activity seems to be mostly constrained under 30 degrees (and consistant with solar minimum) but there is a lot of activity all the way up to 60 degrees latitude.

“Thas jus not right.” – Redneck man. (He shows up sometimes) 

So, ya know, we predict and we get smacked sometimes. We keep trying. Pieces of asteroids have been recovered on earth, but the differences between comets, asteroids, and their meteors needs a lot of empirical data. Thanks to the European Space agency for Rosetta, and thanks to NASA for STEREO – which gives us these Solarham.com images.

hitting with stick

Torn Knee Cartilidge

Yeah, a torn knee. Supposedly an “atheletic injury.” I suppose that 35 years of martial arts, 20 years of sword fighting, and 45 years of being a redneck hick probably earned me that a few times.

The first time I tore up my knee was biking up a mountain in a thunderstorm – actually just shy of a hurricane, they downgraded it to Tropical Depression that morning. Not that anyone told me. I was in Japan and back in ’93 and I don’t speak the local language, other than “Toire wa, doko des ka?” (Where’s the potty?)

 Mt Yari from Mt Washiba -C White

No, this isn’t the mountain I was biking. (but it is pretty) 

This looks more like the roads I was hitting, when cars weren’t trying to kill me. Not as pretty, but still pretty awesome.

I had a couple days off, my professor was in Tokyo for some reason, and I was biking near Tokai. The coast is mostly flat and a bit boring in the misty foggy rain. The roads near town were either unfriendly to bikes or tiny twisty things that with the constant big walls everywhere, aren’t much fun to ride.

There are a couple interesting climbs and some forest along the Mito line, which I went along for a while. Probably too long. I was getting blown around by the wind, so I headed up the mountain and hid out in some kind of general store for a while. I was soaked, my clothes were super-light weight (Japan was running 100 degrees and 100% humidity that week.) So I’m pretty drowned-rat in a light button down shirt and some khakis. The girl at the desk thought I was cute, so we attempted about two hours of cross-cultural, cross-lingual flirting. Not an epic fail… but pretty much a fail. By the time I got back to Tokai, my knees hurt – and kept hurting for a couple years. I used to run around in mocs, but had to move up to shoes with padded soles. The doctor said that I shouldn’t be biking for about 10 years recovering… well, I recovered. I’m still not back into biking, but I tried spinning yesterday (yes, with the bad knee. Just wanted to try it.) Frankly, unless I find a way to burn off some weight, my knees will have real problems. I’m about 15 lbs higher than I think is my standard weight, probably 25 lbs above ideal for my height/build. Somewhere around 175 lbs I’m a sexy beast. (heh, no, probably not, but a man’s got to have his illusions.)

Ron Rogers, he did preface this move saying, “This is gonna hurt.” It dislocated my shoulder.

Nobody warned me that this guy was big… getting busted by him was hard on the back, but I recovered.

This guy was just plain fun…

The Schola St. George was fun … (busted a finger)

Live steel is Da Bomb – though I had to buy titanium gauntlets to stop the constant string of busted fingers, knuckles, wrist…

But nothing beats chasing down people with swords…

Of course, there isn’t much to say. I keep busting myself up and I keep healing. I’ve broken more knuckles, ribs, toes, than I can count. Everything heals up fine…usually. Finally I’m hitting 46 and I don’t heal as fast as I used to.

I’d take off 10 years to let my knee heal…but that just doesn’t seem like a good idea anymore. I’d be 57 and … well.. I’d like to win a few more tourneys between now and then. Oh well, so I guess I get surgery.

If you pray, pray this goes well. If you don’t pray, I’d appreciate you learning, just for me. I’ll be under the knife around noon on August 5th. Should be back to my old self by Dragon Con 2014. Thanks!

Dragon Con 2014

Look, it absolutely stinks that two months before D*Con my website fails.

I am not forgetting Dragon Con, the Space Pirate Amazon Ninja Catgirl party, or anything else.

Updates will occur, this page will soldier on, etc, etc, etc.

(Dr. DNA is bringing tequilla, its gonna be an exciting day.)meow

Space and Science Party – Dragon Con 2014

SPANC

Space Pirate Amazon Ninja Catgirls.
1) It is a fun game
2) Its gonna be a great party.

Folks, I’m awesome, but I could use some help. If you are at Dragon Con 2014, if you are working Space & Science in particular, I could use some stuff:
Food, Booze, A good music list (on a good interface, God knows I don’t want to run it from my laptop.), some tails and ears, an appropriate handstamp, appropriate games and prizes.

I’ve got a lot of plans and I’d like it if you felt you could contribute. We can shift this to a private facebook page if it works better, but contact me.
Hawk 

Global Warming – Status Update

Just to avoid the usual Straw Man, I believe that the world is warmer today than it was in the late 1800′s. Heck, it may be warmer today than in the 1200′s, though that is unproven. I do believe that CO2 has environmental effects, however, I see no link between increasing CO2 content and increased temperature. Further, given that the global and local temperatures have changed several times in the past, I see no link between human activity and increasing temperature. (AGW) Finally, there is zero evidence of a “tipping point,” after which the rate of global warming will jump and the feedback will lead to a 5 – 9 degree C increase in temperature. (ACGW)

UAH_LT_1979_thru_May_2014_v5


But hey, it really isn’t just about a bad theory, it is about a bad theory that dug itself into the political might of the UN, USA, and Europe. The political elite can buy themselves votes by spending other people’s money on their friends projects. Millions flow into other people’s pockets and everyone feels morally superior.

As a friend of mine said, “Green projects are ones they should be doing anyway, so what is the harm in calling it global warming?”

1) It hurts science. The review boards of scientific journals are filled with political hacks who know very little about the field they are supposed to be reviewing. They approve crap into the knowledge base which will take decades to scrub out, they deny good papers which advance science because it doesn’t fit their limited world view.

2) It hurts people. Many people have trouble paying their power bills, many people are hurt by the increased costs on fuel. It increases costs on food and goods. Look, the economy isn’t going up and the costs are increasing. Every year it squeezes us tighter and tighter. The Money Isn’t Free

3) It funds the wrong projects. Good scientists compete for funding. Their work shows solid, repeatable, results. They make predictions and provide evidence. The limited funds should go to real science and real improvements. 

    Political Funding often goes to “showpiece” projects that waste a few millions of dollars and are usually embarrassments – corrected after some boondoggle trips and goofy “demonstration of concept” shows. The politicians behind them are shamed and lose votes, often their office in the wake. People get fired, learning occurs.
    When these Green projects are revealed to be hundred million dollar mistakes, the morality police say something like “They meant well, it needed to be done anyway, no real harm was done.” 
    Harm was done and those who did it should be shamed out of the house. Since they are blessed by the morality police, they continue with their bad choices and continue wasting our money, our science.

4) Green morality needs to be exposed as a fraud. It lets small countries feel morally superior to the bigger countries while taking their money. It lets small men feel superior to their betters while demeaning their science for political reasons they call Truth. It protects those men when they perform immoral and occasionally criminal acts. It isn’t scientific, it is a B grade religion with delusions of Greater Good. The delusional followers are responsible for the harm done in its name. So far, no one has forced them to see the lives ruined by their horrible little god.

Let me check my notes