Solar Cycle Duration Calculations for Cycle 24

I was reading a post by Anthony Watts on “Watts Up With That” and I like what he wrote. Now, I’m not advocating his position, but I am advocating the use of the same data he is using.

You may say, “What?” but here is the deal. Mr. Watts is doing good modeling based on data which seems to produce better (more predictive) results.

1) His results are different than mine, but he has reasons.

2) He is looking at a previous cycle and comparing regions on the sun and their relative xray emissions.

I’m talking about the following graph.
image
(You may have to click on the -more- link to see this picture.) This picture is tracking the deep, hot, solar jet stream. The jet stream slowly works it’s way south, from high latitudes to low latitudes. There is a “Rush to the Poles” event, which I honestly don’t understand. But this is the graph I have been using to predict that we are at Solar Max…and maybe they are right, Solar Max might be a year farther out. This graph is a lot better than the one I was using.

He is also saying that the longer solar cycle will lead to essentially a degree’s cooling. Worth a thought.
 

One thought on “Solar Cycle Duration Calculations for Cycle 24”

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